Source: Erika York,
2026 Tax Brackets and Rates
The TCJA retained the seven-bracket structure for the individual income tax but lowered five of the seven rates and adjusted the widths of the tax brackets. Tables 1 through 4 illustrate where tax rates and brackets would be under continuation of the TCJA based on our own projections, and how tax rates will rise and how tax brackets will adjust in 2026 upon expiration of the TCJA based on CBO projections.
Table 1. How 2026 Tax Rates Will Rise if the TCJA Expires
Source: Author calculations and Congressional Budget Office, “Tax Parameters and Effective Marginal Tax Rates.”
Table 2. How Single Filer Tax Brackets Will Adjust if the TCJA Expires
Source: Author calculations and Congressional Budget Office, “Tax Parameters and Effective Marginal Tax Rates.”
Table 3. How Joint Filer Tax Brackets Will Adjust if the TCJA Expires
Source: Author calculations and Congressional Budget Office, “Tax Parameters and Effective Marginal Tax Rates.”
Table 4. How Head of Household Filer Tax Brackets Will Adjust if the TCJA Expires
Source: Author calculations and Congressional Budget Office, “Tax Parameters and Effective Marginal Tax Rates.”
Standard Deduction, Personal Exemption, and Child Tax Credit
The TCJA nearly doubled the standard deduction and expanded the child tax credit by doubling the maximum to $2,000 and extending the phaseout range, among other changes (like creating a nonrefundable $500 other dependent credit). The TCJA also set the personal exemption to $0, essentially swapping exemptions for a larger standard deduction and child tax credit.
In 2026, personal exemptions would return and be valued at $5,300. The standard deduction would shrink, and be valued at $8,350 for single filers, $16,700 for joint filers, and $12,250 for head of household filers, compared to $15,450, $30,850, and $23,150, respectively, if the TCJA instead continued. The maximum child tax credit would revert back to $1,000 from $2,000 under TCJA and begin phasing out at $75,000 in adjusted gross income for single filers and $110,000 for joint filers, compared to $200,000 and $400,000, respectively, under the TCJA.
Table 5. How Family-Related Provisions Will Adjust if the TCJA Expires
| If the TCJA Continues | If the TCJA Expires | |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Deduction | $15,450 for single filers | $8,350 for single filers |
| $30,850 for joint filers | $16,700 for joint filers | |
| $23,150 for head of household filers | $12,250 for head of household filers | |
| Personal Exemption | $0 | $5,300 |
| Child Tax Credit Maximum | $2,000 | $1,000 |
| Child Tax Credit Phase Out | $200,000 for single filers | $75,000 for single filers |
| $400,000 for joint filers | $110,000 for joint filers | |
| Other Dependent Credit | $500 | $0 |
Source: Author calculations and Congressional Budget Office, “Tax Parameters and Effective Marginal Tax Rates.”
Itemized Deductions, Pease Limitation, and the Alternative Minimum Tax
To offset part of the cost of cutting taxes, the TCJA imposed limitations on certain itemized deductions like the state and local tax deduction (SALT) and the mortgage interest deduction. The TCJA also temporarily eliminated the Pease limitation, which acted as a surtax on higher-income taxpayers, and significantly raised the thresholds for when the alternative minimum tax (AMT) kicks in. While expiration of the TCJA would mean the limitations on itemized deductions go away, more taxpayers would also face Pease and the AMT.
Table 6. How Itemized Deductions, Pease, and the AMT Will Adjust if the TCJA Expires
| If the TCJA Continues | If the TCJA Expires | |
|---|---|---|
| Itemized Deductions | $10,000 limit on SALT | Uncapped SALT |
| $750,000 principal limit on HMID | $1 million principal limit on HMID | |
| Miscellaneous Itemized Deductions eliminated | Miscellaneous Itemized Deductions restored | |
| Pease Limitation | Eliminated | Restored |
| AMT Exemption | $90,400 single filers | $70,900 single filers |
| $140,700 joint filers | $110,400 joint filers | |
| AMT Exemption Phaseout | $642,950 single filers | $157,700 single filers |
| $1,285,950 joint filers | $210,300 joint filers |
Source: Author calculations and Congressional Budget Office, “Tax Parameters and Effective Marginal Tax Rates.”
Conclusion
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reduced tax rates for taxpayers across all income levels, on average. If Congress allows the TCJA to expire as scheduled, most aspects of the individual income tax would undergo substantial changes, resulting in more than 62 percent of tax filers experiencing tax increases in 2026.